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Augur is an open-source, decentralized prediction market built using blockchain technology. A demo of an alpha version of the platform was released June 15, 2015. The project was funded by a crowdfunding campaign, raising more than US $5 million in 45 days (Over 18,000 BTC and 1.1 Million Ether).〔https://sale.augur.net/〕 As of October 2015, the campaign is ranked as the 20th highest funded crowdfunding project of all time with up to 4,800 crowdsale participants in total from every continent expressing interest in financially supporting the project and becoming system referees. The software is projected for beta release on Christmas 2015 and live release by Spring 2016. The project seeks to leverage the "Wisdom of Crowds" (also known as "collective intelligence"), game theory, financial incentives and the open, global, peer-to-peer, distributed ledger functionality that blockchain technology provides to generate better forecasts about any future event involving any major topic of widespread interest. The group's mission is to create a decentralized "Early Warning System for Everything" that has no potential central points of control, failure or censorship and no middlemen. Augur is one of the first applications being built on Ethereum, a decentralized computing platform featuring digital contracts and a turing-complete programming language. The underlying network unit utilized by Augur is known as Reputation, which will be the unit used by the platform's referees to report event outcomes (whether predictions happened or not), whilst Bitcoin and Ether will be used for speculating on predictions. Augur can be used as a distributed oracle system, allowing other smart contracts to propose questions to it and allowing them to discover information about the real world without trusting a third party. In May 2015, Augur released a (two-minute animated video ) titled "How Augur Works" narrated by Country Music star Shooter Jennings, the video provides a detailed explanation of Augur utilizing simplified language to increase understanding of the technology. Following this, Augur made it to the finals in CNBC and Singularity University's (Exponential Finance XCS Challenge ) in the Breakthrough Technology category, making it the only Blockchain technology to make it as a finalist. The platform has amassed growing media attention, including from The Wall Street Journal, International Business Times, Politico, Tech Crunch and CoinDesk.〔.〕 "The consensus of large groups presents a near infallible way of predicting unknown events, and with this in mind Augur uses a decentralised network combined with an immutable blockchain to record predictions and outcomes," wrote Ian Allison of International Business Times. "In a strange and compelling sense the technology and its scale creates a tool for accurately predicting the future... It's a vibrant example of the sort of wiggy decentralised applications (DAPPs) that can be expected (predicted) to follow in lockstep with the type of technology underlying the bitcoin network." 〔 == Background == Augur is a project that began with the purpose of building a scalable open source tool utilizes the wisdom of crowds to improve decision making capabilities in a wide variety of fields. The project's uniqueness centers in its utilization of Ethereum, a decentralized platform similar to Bitcoin that will provide numerous improvements over other centralized prediction markets available in the past. Augur's conceptual roots can be traced back to Frederich von Hayek's ''The Use of Knowledge in Society'', Robin Hanson's concept of "(Idea Futures )", Paul Sztorc's "Truthcoin" whitepaper, Vitalik Buterin's "Schellingcoin" concept, and the work of Stanford University computer scientist (Joseph Bonneau ). In a 2012 FiveThirtyEight blog by Nate Silver, he discusses the efficiency of prediction markets and points out that the consensus of forecasts is often better than even the best-performing members of the group involved. Silver, known to be one of the few statisticians to outperform prediction markets, confirms that a consensus of data gathered by about a dozen models similar to his own FiveThirtyEight.com blog would be useful as the consensus of forecasts often performs better than even the best singular performer in the group used. Silver has also stated that a prediction market given sufficient volume could be more accurate than Bayesian statistics.〔The Signal and the Noise〕 Augur was the only blockchain technology that made it to the finals of the Exponential Finance XCS Challenge. Judges from Forbes, Barclays, Deloitte, Wells Fargo and Credit Suisse voted Augur to the finals. Coinbase selected Augur as one of its five most exciting bitcoin projects in their "Bitcoin Trends In The First Half Of 2015" report, sharing the title included 21, Blockstream, Abra and Streamium. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Augur (software)」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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